Don’t Worry, Amare Stoudemire Will Be Fine.

Amare Stoudemire has started the season taking a plethora of long-jumpers, rather then closer, higher-percentage shots, and even though he has gotten off to a slow start, statistically, I think he will have another fantastic season.

In his career, Amare Stoudemire has a 21.9-point average, to go along with 8.8 rebounds a game.

In the first three-games of this shortened NBA season, Stoudemire averaged just 17.3 points per game, had a PER of 15.48 and a true shooting percentage of 51.2%. Now, if we compare those numbers to last year’s, in which Amare averaged 25.3, had a PER of 22.78 and a TS% of 56.5%, we’d see a drop of 8 PPG, a decrease in PER of 7.3 and a lower TS% of 5.3%.

Luckily, for Amare and Knicks fans, the law of averages should save us, and bring Amare back to his career averages, maybe even a little higher.

First off, in the six games Amare has played this season, he is only making 7.4 field goals a game. But, it’s not for a lack of attempts, as Amare is averaging 16.2 shots a game, close to the second most in his career. Rather, it’s because his usual range is not there, yet.

Over his career, Stoudemire is a 53.6% shooter, but this year, Stoudemire is only connecting on 45.4% of his attempts. If we take into account each of Amare’s seasons, except for the ’11-’12* season and ’05-’06 season*, we will see that he has a standard deviation of just 4.23% in his field-goal percentage. This means that we can expect a deviation of 4.23% from his career average of 53.7% shooting percentage for any season in the future.

From this data, we can conclude that Amare’s average should be within 4.23% of his 53.7% average, more often than not. So, for this season, we can expect Amare to shoot within the band of 49.49% and 57.94%, which would add 8.27-25.17 extra points on every 100 attempts Amare takes, also known as an additional 1.34-4.08 points to his daily average, based on 16.2 attempts a game.

Against the Wizards, Amare Stoudemire was a perfect 7/7 at the rim and against the Pistons, he was 6-7, but was just a combined 4-22 from anywhere else on the floor.

Now, if we take a look at Amare’s past five-seasons, we will find that he averaged 6.58 attempts at the rim, from ’07-’11. This year, though, Amare is averaging just 5.5 attempts at the rim, but knocking them down at an impressive 82%, a 14.30% improvement over his previous five-year average. Once again, by calculating the standard deviation, we can expect Amare’s shot attempts at the rim to increase from 5.5 times a night, to within the band of 6.26 and 6.90 times a night.

Amare is taking less shots at the rim, but his overall shot attempts have not fallen, thus making another facet of his game bring down his field-goal percentage.

Now, if we take a look at Amare’s past five-seasons from long-range (16-23 feet), we will find that he averaged 3.84 attempts a game, which we will disregard because we have seen an increase in those attempts very recently. But, what we can look at is his shooting percentage from this distance.

Over those five years, Amare consistently found himself in the mid 40’s. He averaged 45.6% from long-range from ’07-’11. Because he was in such a tight range, the variance in his shooting is a mere 2.3%. So, for this season, we can expect him to shoot anywhere from 43.37%, all the way up to 47.93%. This is huge, considering Stoudemire is shooting a putrid 25.64% from long-range, currently.

So, after looking at some stats, I think it’s safe to say that we can expect Amare’s numbers to rise because his attempts at the rim should increase as the season wears on, and his long-range jumper should start falling, so that he can achieve his mid-40 field goal percentage.

Amare is a talented player that has a ton of weapons, and while he does not have both his inside and outside game going, Stoudemire is progressing smoothly, so far this season.

 

 

*Amare has only played in 5 games, so far, in ’11-’12, and only played 3 games in ’05-’06, so don’t want to skew the data.

Data courtesy of HoopData.com and Basketball-Reference.com