AmareStoudemire

Examining The Complicated Career Of Amare Stoudemire

AmareStoudemire

You would think with the accomplishments Amare Stoudemire has accumulated over the course of his ongoing 11-year career that there would be a clearer, definitive idea of the type of player he has been.

The list is extensive: Six-Time All-Star, Rookie of The Year, All-NBA first team, All-NBA second team four times, top-10 in field goal percentage five times, top-10 P.E.R. three times, top-10 true shooting percentage five times and top-10 in Win Shares three times.

Stoudemire was one of the centerpieces of a Phoenix Suns squad that made the playoffs six times in eight years, including three Western Conference Finals appearances and one Western Conference Semifinals appearance.

These are undeniable facts of productivity.

There is a statistic, one that does an excellent job showing a player’s worth to his team with the appropriate sample size, which gives a different story to Stoudemire’s career, though.

According to basketball-reference, in 22,109 minutes on the court, Stoudemire’s team’s Offensive Rating was 112.1, while the Defensive Rating was 108.4. In 18,216 minutes off the court, his team’s ORtg was 109 and DRtg 105.3. Going by those numbers, Amare’s net worth to his team’s was 0, it’s dead even, as the team was a +3.7 with him on the court, and a +3.7 with him on the court, which would equate to a net of zero.

For those who don’t know what offensive rating and defensive rating really are, they measure a team’s offensive and defensive output over 100 possessions, which creates an even statistic to compare teams with.

Here is a chart that breaks down Stoudemire’ On/Off court numbers throughout his entire career.

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In 2002-03 and 2003-04, it needs to be remembered that Amare was an extremely raw 20 and 21-year-old kid, respectively, who came to the NBA directly out of high school. The fact that he was able to earn Rookie of the Year in his first year and put up 20-points and nine rebound averages in his second year is quite impressive.

After those two seasons, Steve Nash came to Phoenix, and the Suns’ window of elite status was suddenly opened. In 2004-05, the Suns were clearly a better team when Amare played. The team’s offensive ration was at such a high level with him on the court (117.8) verses him off (104.8), it completely hid the below average defense – 107.8 wit him on the court, 103.8 with him off.

Stoudemire only played 50 minutes in ‘05-‘06 and was replaced in the line-up with Boris Diaw. Despite this, Phoenix managed to get to the Western Conference Finals. Diaw’s on/off court net worth during this season was 10.2, a higher net rating than any year of Stoudemire’s career.

Between ‘06-‘07 and ‘10-‘11 Amare’s impact, positively or negatively, was minimal for four of the five seasons. In 07-08, Stoudemire had the second best net positive mark of his career, but in 09-10, a Suns team that got to the Western Conference Finals, was actually better when Stoudemire didn’t play.

Another way to put STAT’s career in Phoenix into context is to contrast his on/off court numbers to Steve Nash’s. The years to concentrate on are ‘04-‘05 through ‘09-‘10, excluding the Diaw year. This is when Phoenix had the most team success. During that time, Stoudemire’s average net worth was +2.98, while Steve Nash’s net worth was +10.98.

In addition to looking at the numbers, I want to incorporate the thoughts of someone who had seen the Suns and been around them on a regular basis. This is what Suns beat writer for the Arizona Republic, Paul Coro, who covered the team for Amare’s entire career, had to say when I posed the question, “During Stoudemire’s time with the Suns, is it conceivable that they were better when he was off the court than when he was on the court?”

Here is Coro’s answer (also, follow him on twitter, as he is one of the best beat writers in the N.B.A.)

There are damning examples that argue the Suns could not only survive, but even thrive without Stoudemire. When he missed 2005-06 after the microfracture, the Suns went to the Western Conference finals by sliding Boris Diaw, a perimeter player in Atlanta, to Stoudemire’s frontcourt spot. The Suns were an underachieving 26-21 team in 2009-10 when the 28-7 turnaround began with Alvin Gentry benching Stoudemire for an entire fourth quarter against Dallas because they needed to be better defensively. But on the whole, the Suns were better with Stoudemire on the court when his legs had their pop and the team had other strong leaders because of his unique combination of skills. He was an efficient mid-range shooter with incredible hands and the power to finish on pick-and-rolls. Those qualities brought the best out in Steve Nash. For most of their time together, that was enough to compensate for what the Suns sacrificed defensively with them.

As would be expected, the above paragraph does a great job encapsulating Stoudemire’s career with the Phoenix Suns. It was difficult to judge, as there were times that you could see they were a good team without him, but there is no denying, when completely healthy, that Stoudemire did bring positives to the table.

Next up, Stoudemire moved onto the Knicks. He was hailed as a savior and serenaded with M.V.P. chants throughout the ‘10-‘11 season. New York had a tremendous 12-1 stretch, but during STAT’s time as the focal point of the team, they were 28-26 overall.

This fact seems to get skipped over when this season gets discussed; the Knicks were nothing special with Amare as the best player on the team. According to the on/off court numbers, he was actually a negative net worth.

2011-2012 gets tossed away for me, since it was a lockout-shortened season with no training camp. Carmelo Anthony, when Stoudemire was healthy playing with him, was in the midst of playing some of the worst basketball of his career. Melo, Stoudemire and Chandler had problems meshing and it lead to some awful numbers, in part because Amare really was bad, but also in part to some unusual circumstances.

For more context surrounding Stoudemire’s career, it’s appropriate to compare him with some other power forwards from his era.

The two preeminent ones, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett, have on/off numbers that clearly show their higher worth.

Garnett has a career net worth of +9.7, with impressive numbers such as a +23.6 in ‘02-‘03 and 20.8 in ‘03-’04, while Duncan’s career net is +11.8. He had a positive rating of 14.8 in ‘02-‘03 and 17.8 in ‘04-’05, two notable years in Duncan’s career, in terms of his team’s offensive/defensive rating, at least.

Clearly, Amare Stoudemire does not belong on a level with those two.

I asked Tommy Dee from TheKnicksBlog.com to give me five power forwards he would think to compare Stoudemire to. The list he came up with was Chris Webber, Chris Bosh, Kenyon Martin, Al Horford and David Lee, in no particular order.

Here are those five players’ career net +/-, when looking at on/off court numbers.

  • Chris Webber: +0.9
  • Al Horford: +1.5
  • Kenyon Martin: +1.1
  • David Lee: +3.6
  • Chris Bosh: +6.1

Stoudemire has the lowest net number, compared to those five players.

Webber was the closest player to Stoudemire’s net number, which is interesting; a player, who in his peak years was apart of a team that’s biggest strength was a high efficiency offense, just like the case was with Stoudemire, finished closest to Stoudemire in net rating. Horford/Martin, were a little bit lower than Stoudemire’s peak years (’04-’05 to ’09-’10) and David Lee’s team stunk (those years were rough), which allowed him to be the knight in shining armor, but they were better when he was on the court. Chris Bosh is head and shoulders better, which I don’t think anyone would debate.

During his career, Stoudemire has often canceled out his productivity on offense by bringing his team’s defense down. We’re at the point where it is a legitimate question to whether he brings enough to the table on offense to be worthy of playing 25+ minutes a night. It’s a debate that has gone back and forth. In his first two games back, especially the second game against the Spurs, the impact he could potentially have on the second unit was seen.

In a limited sample size (eight minutes) against the San Antonio Spurs, the trio of Stoudemire, Melo and Chandler showed signs of being able to function, as they put up an offensive rating of 140 and a defensive rating of 87.5, for a net rating of… 52.5.

Just to recap, Stoudemire has racked up some amazing accolades, but year-over-year, his net offensive/defensive rating when on/off court is not in the field with guys like Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan. Stoudemire isn’t known as a defender, which leads his teams to rely on out-scoring the opponent. In the past, Stoudemire’s explosiveness and shot-making ability has helped his team’s offense more than his hinderance on defense has limited it, which leads to a positive net number.

With the Knicks, though, this year and moving forward, Stoudemire’s legs have aged and shot-making seems to have vanished (well, last year at least). The question now becomes whether or not Stoudemire can contribute enough on the offensive end to outweigh his defensive mishaps, or will he change as a player and play defense under coach Woodson, making up for a let-down on offense?

My guess is that at the end of the season, the impact of Stoudemire’s on/off court numbers, positively or negatively, will be minimal, just as it has been for most of ‘06-‘07 through ‘10-‘11, which should be good enough to allow the Knicks to get deep into the Eastern Conference playoffs!

 

  • Scott Davis

    Very interesting stuff, Bryan. Amar’e has undoubtedly had a strange, winding, yet productive career. I suppose for me, though, his seasons’ net worth is hard to measure (as with any player’s) because their teammates matter a lot. In 09-10, the Suns had a great bench that boosted their leads in games and would sometimes close out fourth quarters. Or you could look at David Lee who in the same year probably boasted a great bet worth because the rest of the Knicks’ team was shot.

    Also not sure I understand why those five players compare to Amar’e since some of them have quite different games and quite different teams over the years.

    Very good post, but as with all things in basketball – especially with STAT! – it can be tricky trying to get to the bottom of it or draw a conclusion

  • http://twitter.com/MrCoard Terrence Coard

    amare is a tool that can be used to get past the heat. People love the JR dunk, but don’t understand its genius. A great pick n roll can be THE most devistating play in basketball. An 80% amare pick n roll with prigioni caused 3 defense players to focus HARD which gave JR the wide open cut.. Where most guards only garnish 1 player to focus hard and maybe have a another defensive player spy or shade.

    Melo needs a 1b (ask Kobe n Lebron). If youre not preparing him to be that.. the knicks will be the Denver nuggets of the East. Good luck

  • http://twitter.com/MrCoard Terrence Coard

    another thing.. If you look at his time in Phoenix, you’ll see crazy efficiency and production, true. But what doesn’t get talked about is how he was under utilized. Of all the people who scored over 20points he was always the lowest or close to the lowest in shots per game. Suns were over team centric if you ask me. He’d have Mat Bonner on him and they’d still want Marcus Banks or Barbosa to take more shots.

    When Amare was fed the ball, gr could eat. A lot. 1year alone with a new team with the knicks, not a good enough sample size. But he was definitely the focal point. But Kobe was the focal point in LA and one year fail to get in the playoffs and got bounced in the first round. Read articles about KG when he was in Minnesota. They echo your tone.

    basketball is hard to quantify. But we’re on the right path. I HATE NBA ANALYSIS WITH JUST COACH TALK

  • Steve

    Sometimes I think these statistics are prepared by Mob Accountants…first of All, Duncan and Garnett are 6′ 11″ Hall of Fame Centers playing as Power Forwards, they impact the Game differently than Amare, who played as undersized Center in D’Antoni’s wacky system; he played to maximize his Physical Gifts on offense. The Sun’s Defense was porous as was D’Antoni’s SSOL philosophy (even with 60 wins, and the trip to ’05 Conference Finals where Amare was eating Duncan alive). Webber had similar +/- as Amare and also the most success out of that comparative group, losing a Game 7 at home to the Lakers in overtime in 2002. They were both extremely close to going to the Finals, where they probably would be Champions vs a weak east ( Nets in 03 and Cav’s in 07). Bosh and Horford couldn’t get out of the first round and Lee averaged 25 wins in New York. Amare lifted the Knicks to a 10 game improvement from the previous year after the same number of Games. If Amare would have been drafted by Detroit or San Antonio or Boston in 2002 he would have been a different player, developed differently. He wasn’t. Teams can either play to their personnel’s strengths or dwell on their weaknesses. Riley had an Offensive team in LA and Defensive Teams in New York and Miami. Amare was being both candid and honest when he said he had not been taught a Defensive system in Phoenix in his formative years. This Knick team is built differently so Amare, for the first time will become a role player like Novak.

    • http://twitter.com/MrCoard Terrence Coard

      well said.. Jalen Rose even said (when he was on the Suns) when they were going to play the spurs on the playoffs, D’antoni did ZERO prep on defending Duncan, ZERO. just let 6’10 amare try to defend 7ft duncan